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Hillary Clinton says history shows she can win over Bernie Sanders supporters
As the list of states that haven’t voted yet dwindles, Democrats are pondering how Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will be able to unify their supporters in advance of November’s general election.
Party strategists have worried that aggressive sparring during the New York primary is fraying relations between Clinton, Sanders, and their respective supporters. Polling evidence suggests that there may be reason for such a worry: An April McClatchy-Marist poll found that 25 percent of Sanders supporters said they would not back Clinton as the Democratic nominee, compared to 69 percent who said they would support her. Another 6 percent were unsure.
Clinton addressed this during an April 21, 2016, town hall with ABC’s Good Morning America, comparing it to her 2008 primary bid against Barack Obama.
"When I withdrew in June of 2008, polls were showing that at least 40 percent of my supporters said, oh, they weren't going to support Sen. Obama," Clinton said at the televised town hall.
In other words, Clinton argued, if Obama can come back from even sharper divisions to win the presidency, then she can, too.
We looked into the polling archive to see if she has a good argument.
We found two polls taken in June 2008 that asked primary supporters of Clinton who they would support with Obama as the Democratic nominee. Here’s the summary:
Pollster
Month
Will support Obama
Will support McCain
Won’t vote/
Other
McCain support
plus won’t vote/other
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June
60
17
22
39
June
62
25
13
38
So Clinton has a point: In both polls, roughly 60 percent of former Clinton supporters backed Obama, while 40 percent didn’t, either through a vote for Republican nominee John McCain or a vow to do something other than voting for Obama.
This means Clinton can take heart that she is already doing about 10 points better securing the backing of Sanders voters than Obama was doing securing support from Clinton backers.
We have one small caveat: While the polls from 2008 and 2016 are similar in topic, their wording is slightly different. The 2016 Marist poll uses terminology that’s a bit vague -- the choices are "support her" or "not support her." By contrast, the 2008 CNN poll was more specific, looking at whether people would vote for Obama, vote for Republican nominee John McCain, or wouldn’t vote at all.
Subsequent polling data showed Obama did eventually win the support of Clinton backers. By August 2008, polls showed that Obama was winning 70 percent to 76 percent of Clinton supporters. And of course, Obama went on to win in November.
Our ruling
Clinton said, "When I withdrew in June of 2008, polls were showing that at least 40 percent of my supporters said, oh, they weren't going to support Sen. Obama."
The wording of polls makes exact comparisons a bit tricky, but in general, Clinton is right about the scale of Obama’s 2008 problem with dissident Democrats -- and correct that Obama had a harder road then than she seems to have now. We rate the statement Mostly True.
https://www.sharethefacts.co/share/53ab6eae-7c0b-47c8-b2f6-d6c89e991bf9Our Sources
Hillary Clinton, town hall with ABC’s Good Morning America, April 21, 2016
Mediaite, "How Bad Is Poll That Says 25% of Bernie Sanders Fans Won’t Vote For Hillary?" April 6th, 2016
Washington Post, "Hill, Yes! O., No!" June 27, 2008
New York Times, "Poll: Democrats Might Vote McCain if Their Candidate Isn’t the Nominee," March 26, 2008
McClatchy-Marist Poll, results, March 29-31, 2016
McClatchy, "Poll: 25 percent of Sanders voters would shun Clinton," April 6, 2016
Pew Research Center, "Presidential Race Draws Even," Aug. 13, 2008
CNN, "Clinton's new job: Persuading diehard fans to back Obama," June 8, 2008
McClatchy, "Can Hillary Clinton persuade her followers to back Obama?," Aug. 25, 2008
PR Newswire, "Three Months Until Election Day, New Lifetime Networks' Every Woman Counts Poll Reveals Where Women Voters Stand, Post-Hillary, on the Presidential Nominees, the Issues and the First Woman President," Aug. 5, 2008
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Hillary Clinton says history shows she can win over Bernie Sanders supporters
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