Trump exaggerates about how much illegal immigration raised rental housing prices

With affordability in the spotlight, President Donald Trump and his administration have sought to tie rising housing costs to illegal immigration under his predecessor, President Joe Biden.

On July 8, a reporter on Air Force One asked Trump what lessons could be learned from a March working paper by Federal Reserve economists about the impacts of unauthorized immigration on U.S. labor and housing. 

The president responded, "What's happening is housing costs are going down because — and rental costs are going down — because we're getting so many illegals out of the country. But Joe Biden raised the cost of housing by 40 and 50% — the cost of (a) rental — because they were housing illegal aliens in all of those empty units."

But that’s not what the paper says. It attributed 4.3 percentage points of the 22.6% overall increase in rental housing prices to unauthorized immigration from 2021 to 2024, which was during Biden’s tenure. 

We also found no evidence that the Biden administration housed immigrants in the U.S. illegally  in empty homes. PolitiFact rated False a similar 2024 claim from a Trump-aligned campaign ad.

When contacted for comment, the White House referred us to the working paper and a New York Post article about it.

Trump’s statement exaggerates the data

From 2021 to 2024, 1.6 million immigrants per year entered the U.S. illegally, overstayed their legal status or entered legally and were awaiting immigration court proceedings, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates.

The Federal Reserve working paper used the Zillow Observed Rent Index to determine that U.S. rental housing prices on average climbed 22.6% from early 2021 to early 2024 in the average metropolitan statistical area, which are federally defined regions that include both a city and surrounding communities. 

The paper said elevated levels of unauthorized immigration caused a 4.3% increase in rental prices. That accounted for 19% of the 22.6% increase..

The paper’s authors noted it’s a supply and demand issue. Immigrants added to the need for housing supply but there were not enough housing units constructed to meet the increased demand.

Experts have cautioned against blaming price increases on illegal immigration rather than a lack of new construction, which is a primary factor.

Dean Baker, cofounder and senior economist at the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research, told PolitiFact in November that newly arrived immigrants typically have low housing demand and often share housing with other immigrants, family members or friends.

In the past, the White House’s claims about the impact of illegal immigration on housing prices lacked evidence.

Our ruling

Trump said that Biden "raised the cost of housing by 40 and 50% — the cost of (a) rental — because they were housing illegal aliens in all of those empty units." 

The statement has an element of truth: A federal data analysis found unauthorized immigration from 2021 to 2024 during Biden’s tenure accounted for a small portion of rental housing price increases. However, Trump exaggerated the effect of illegal immigration on rental housing prices. The study said it drove prices up 4.3%, not 10 times that.

We found no evidence that the Biden administration housed immigrants in the U.S. illegally in vacant homes.

We rate the claim Mostly False.