Wisconsin Republican candidate mostly wrong on numbers of Americans left behind in Afghanistan

The United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan remains a fixture of retired U.S. Navy SEAL Derrick Van Orden’s campaign for Wisconsin’s 3rd District congressional seat. 

Since last summer’s chaotic exit from the nation’s longest war, Van Orden has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden for the number of American citizens left in the country.

Here’s how he framed it in a Dec. 7, 2021, tweet: "(President Joe Biden) abandoned 1000’s of our fellow American citizens to their fate w/ the Taliban & imported 10’s of 1000’s of random people from a country that we fought in for over 20 years." 

That echoed a Sept. 29, 2021, tweet that claimed, partly: "When officers do enlisted math. 10,000 to 15,000 American citizens abandoned to terrorists in Afghanistan. 6000 - pulled from the country. Equals - ‘less than 100’ "

The "less than 100" refers to official tallies at the time of the Aug. 31, 2021, deadline of Americans who were not evacuated.

For this fact-check, we’ll focus on the claim that actions by Biden left "10,000 to 15,000 American citizens abandoned to terrorists in Afghanistan."

Is he right? 

Not exactly, given that those Van Orden classifies as "abandoned" did not necessarily want to leave. Indeed, some have dual citizenship, between the U.S. and Afghanistan. 

There are some key factors involved in counting Americans in Afghanistan, or any foreign country for that matter.

First, registering with the U.S. State Department, through an embassy, is not required. Second, in many cases individuals may have dual citizenship.

And, in this case, officials say not every American in Afghanistan wanted to leave.

When the evacuation of Afghanistan began, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin wrote in an Aug. 17, 2021, letter to Congress that there were as many as 15,000 Americans in the country needing evacuation.

Blinken then told reporters on Aug. 25, 2021, that the number of American citizens who wanted to leave was closer to about 6,000.

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According to an Aug. 29, 2021 Washington Post analysis of those figures, the State Department started its initial figure of 15,000 citizens based on the known number of Americans in the country and assumed given the Taliban’s pending takeover many would need evacuation. 

The second number of 6,000 came after State Department officials and embassy workers had heard from people who wished to leave the country. 

So, Van Orden may use the correct numbers in making the claim, but he misleads in assuming the estimated 9,000 Americans remaining in Afghanistan wanted to leave in the first place. 

When we asked Van Orden for backup, spokesperson Justin Giorgio said the candidate’s broader point was about how the Biden Administration’s figure of exactly how many more Americans needed to be evacuated kept changing, more so than how some chose to leave after the Aug. 31 deadline. But that was not how it was stated.

On Sept. 13, 2021, Blinken told Congress that fewer than 100 American citizens who wished to be evacuated remained inside the country, according to a report that day from NBC News. Other news outlets reported the number of Americans left in Afghanistan was between 100 and 200. 

Since that point, as conditions in Afghanistan have worsened, the number of Americans seeking to leave has increased. Thus, the number of those "left" is constantly changing.

In all, the federal government has helped 479 American citizens and 450 permanent residents leave Afghanistan for the United States since the Aug. 31 withdrawal deadline, according to a Dec. 13, 2021, State Department news release. 

Jen Psaki, Biden’s press secretary, told reporters Dec. 14, 2021, that many of the people evacuated since the withdrawal deadline had initially decided not to leave. 

"There were people who wanted — determined they wanted to leave since then, and it is our responsibility to help them depart. So that’s evidence of our commitment to do exactly that," she  said, according to a White House readout of the media briefing. 

Psaki and the State Department said then that about a dozen Americans were awaiting evacuation from the country. 

The figures he uses are real, but they are dramatically mischaracterized — particularly with the use of the word "abandoned."  The State Department’s initial estimate included thousands who have dual citizenship. And even using a whittled-back number would suggest that every one of those individuals wants to leave.

After the Aug. 31 withdrawal deadline, about 100 Americans remained who wished to be evacuated. Since then, the U.S. has helped 479 American citizens and 450 permanent residents leave Afghanistan. As of mid-December, officials said, about a dozen were seeking help in leaving the country.

Our definition of Mostly False is a statement that "contains an element of truth but ignores critical facts that would give a different impression."

That fits here.