Fact-checking Donald Trump’s dubious claim about job losses for native-born Americans

During a recent campaign rally, former President Donald Trump amplified a growing argument among some Republicans that foreigners are taking jobs away from native-born Americans.

On March 9 in Rome, Georgia, Trump said, "Unions should endorse Trump because I am closing our border good and tight. … In February alone, nearly 1 million jobs held by native-born Americans disappeared. Think of that. You lost 1 million jobs. Black people. That’s who lost the jobs. Hispanic people. That’s who lost the jobs."

However, this is wrong on several levels, including that economists consider Trump’s statistic to be cherry-picked and all but meaningless.

Trump’s campaign did not answer an inquiry for this fact-check.

The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics every month publishes the "employment level for the native-born" and calculates a monthly companion employment level statistic for the foreign-born.

The native-born employment statistic emerges from the same monthly survey that asks households about who is working, who is unemployed but looking for work and who is not currently looking for work. This survey is used to calculate the widely tracked unemployment rate. 

Although the household survey also produces a raw number for people who are currently employed, economists consider this number inferior to the one from a different federal survey that asks businesses about the workers they employ. Also, the household survey has a significantly higher margin of error because it’s much smaller than the survey of businesses.  

Of the two surveys, only the household survey asks demographic questions, including whether the worker is native-born or foreign-born. But that doesn’t mean the overall employment numbers in the household survey are precise.

For instance, in February, the month Trump referred to, the household survey found that the nation lost 184,000 jobs. By contrast, the survey of business establishments found that employment had increased by 275,000 jobs, which was broadly in line with monthly job gains over the past few years.

"It’s a terrible measure of employment," Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the center-right American Action Forum said of the household survey. "We don’t know what we’re really learning."

Beyond this, Trump’s 1 million figure is exaggerated. 

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The household survey statistic shows that in February, the employment level for native-born Americans fell by 494,000, not 1 million. 

One problem with using the household survey’s employment figure is that the number bounces around because it’s not "seasonally adjusted" — that is, regular, seasonal differences in hiring patterns aren’t smoothed out. (The establishment survey, by contrast, offers a seasonally adjusted number.)

A recurring pattern in the native-born and foreign born employment data is that employment usually falls during the year’s first two months. One reason is that workers hired for the year-end holiday season leave their jobs. Another is that construction projects slow during winter’s depths. 

Since 2008, the household survey’s data shows that two-thirds of the time, January and February collectively produced a job loss for native-born workers. In most cases, these losses ranged from 500,000 to 2 million. So, a native-born job loss of about 500,000, such as the one in February, is not unprecedented.

Focusing on one month also overlooks the broader trend that native-born employment has been robust on President Joe Biden’s watch. 

The native-born employment level has declined for each of the last three months, but the increase during Biden’s tenure has been substantial nevertheless. Since Biden’s 2021 inauguration, native-born employment has risen by about 6.2 million jobs.

Also, years when Biden was president account for two of the five instances since 2008 when native-born employment bucked the historical trend and rose in January and February. (We did not include 2021, when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the labor market.)

"Anyone who makes a big deal out of the monthly changes in the household survey is basically telling you that they don't understand the data," said Dean Baker, co-founder of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research. 

Trump said, "In February alone, nearly 1 million jobs held by native-born Americans disappeared."

Trump is wrong on the number — it was closer to 500,000 that month. But other things also make Trump’s statistic problematic.

Economists say the survey Trump used for measuring raw changes in employment isn’t the most accurate. It’s common for this metric to show a large decline in jobs during the first two months of the year, because the statistic is not adjusted for regular seasonal cycles of employment.

Also, focusing on one month obscures the overall trend line under Biden: an increase of 6.2 million jobs for native-born Americans since his inauguration.

We rate the statement False.