President Donald Trump is wrong that tariff revenues have slashed US deficit by 25%

As President Donald Trump faced questions about the economic impact of his trade policy, a White House social media post framed tariffs as essential for tackling federal deficits.

A Nov. 12 X Post from the White House included Trump’s Nov. 5 remarks to a business forum when he touted his administration’s efforts to reduce government and target "waste, fraud and abuse." He said the economy has been creating jobs in the private sector rather than in the government.

"My tariffs are bringing in hundreds of billions of dollars, and are helping to slash the deficit this year by more than 25%," the X post quoted Trump as saying.

The post received a community note — a crowdsourced fact-check — citing Treasury Department figures and data from the Congressional Budget Office, Congress’ nonpartisan number-crunching arm. 

We found that Trump exaggerated the deficit's decline on his watch by a factor of 10.

"The deficit has not been meaningfully cut, much less slashed by 25%," said Steve Ellis, president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, a Washington, D.C.-based group that tracks budget policy. 

The White House did not provide evidence to support the statement.

The federal deficit fell by 2.3% from fiscal year 2024 to 2025 

When the federal government’s 2025 fiscal year ended Sept. 30, the Congressional Budget Office posted a final calculation of the deficit for the 2025 fiscal year, which started Oct. 1, 2024.

The CBO reported a federal deficit of $1.775 trillion in fiscal year 2025. That represented a 2.3% decrease from the 2024 fiscal year deficit, which was $1.817 trillion. 

The CBO also calculated the deficit as a share of gross domestic product. That fell from 6.3% in fiscal 2024 to 5.9% in fiscal 2025, a 0.4 percentage point drop. That was well short of a 25% drop, as well.

Trump served for all or part of nine months of the 2025 fiscal year, from January to September. If considering only the portions of the 2025 fiscal year when Trump was president, and comparing them with the same months in 2024 when President Joe Biden was in office, the deficit increased on Trump’s watch.  

From January to September 2024, when Biden was president, the deficit was $1.064 trillion. From January to September 2025, when Trump was president, the deficit was $1.079 trillion, a 1.4% increase.

From January to October 2025, the federal government collected $309.2 billion in tariff revenue, compared with $165.4 billion through the same point in 2024, an increase of $143.8 billion.

The White House has offered divergent plans for increased tariff revenue. Trump proposed on social media that Americans receive $2,000 tariff revenue dividends. If the administration pursues the dividend check idea — which would face a range of obstacles — that plan would eliminate much or all of the tariffs’ potential deficit-reducing impact.

Ellis said the tariff dividends likely would increase the federal deficit. 

The Supreme Court is also weighing a challenge to Trump’s ability to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a law he’s used aggressively in his second term. If the justices rule that he can’t use that law to impose tariffs, much of the tariff revenue could disappear.

Our ruling

Trump said his tariffs "are helping to slash the deficit this year by more than 25%."

The federal deficit has not fallen by 25% during Trump’s second term. The fiscal year 2025 deficit was 2.3% smaller than the fiscal 2024 deficit. When considering only the portions of the fiscal 2025 year when Trump was president, the deficit was higher on his watch than during the comparable months in 2024 under Biden.

Trump has proposed using tariff revenue to fund dividends for the American public, which would eliminate any deficit-reducing impact the tariffs could have.

We rate the statement False.