Social media followings of Katie Hobbs, Kari Lake, not evidence of election fraud

Arizona Secretary State Katie Hobbs narrowly prevailed in her bid to become the state’s governor, according to unofficial election results, with 50.3% of the vote. 

But a recent Instagram post suggests the election is illegitimate, and points to the number of Instagram followers Hobbs and her Republican opponent Kari Lake have. 

"Katie Hobbs had ~2.8 percent of Kari Lake’s Instagram following… Katie Hobbs is AZ’s secretary of state and oversees elections… but we’re not allowed to question anything?" the video post says. 

"How are we supposed to believe this!?" reads text above an image in the post of an NBC News broadcast projecting Hobbs as the winner. "Just look at their socials!!!"

This post was flagged as part of Facebook’s efforts to combat false news and misinformation on its News Feed. (Read more about our partnership with Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram.)

It’s true that Hobbs has a fraction of Lake’s social media following, though when we compared their profiles Nov. 17, it was more like 3%. Lake has about 496,000 followers; Hobbs has about 15,000. 

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Instagram posts

stated on April 1, 2024 in an Instagram post

Texas found that 95,000 noncitizens were registered to vote.

But as we noted in a fact-check of a similar claim, casting doubt on Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s U.S. Senate win over Republican candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz, a large social media following doesn’t ensure an election win. 

Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic candidate for Texas governor who has about 1.1 million Instagram followers, failed to unseat Gov. Greg Abbott, who has about 162,000.

Stacey Abrams, the Democratic candidate for Georgia governor, has about 2.1 million followers, while Gov. Brian Kemp, who won re-election, has fewer than 48,000. 

Syracuse University professor Jennifer Stromer-Galley, who studies political social media messaging, told NPR in August that although social media helps amplify a candidate's message, it doesn’t automatically translate to election wins. They’re "talking primarily to supporters," Stromer-Galley said, but that could include people out of state who won’t vote in that candidate’s election. 

There is no evidence of widespread fraud in the Arizona gubernatorial election, least of all because Hobbs has fewer Instagram followers than Lake. 

We rate that claim Pants on Fire!