Does New York lead the US in population loss? It depends on the measure

Following a stint in Congress and as administrator of the Federal Transit Administration in the Trump administration, Marc Molinaro has launched a campaign for a New York state Assembly seat.

Molinaro, a Republican, recently exchanged X posts with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, criticizing Hochul on her party’s record in office.

Hochul posted, "I’ll keep working to lower costs for New Yorkers and put money back in their pockets." Molinaro replied on Feb. 14, "You have driven NYers to the financial cliff! Highest tax burden in America, exploding electric & energy costs, leading in population loss."

Earlier this year, we looked at whether New York has the nation’s highest tax burden (it’s either first or second in most rankings) and whether New Yorkers pay 49% more than the national average for electricity (they do, though most northeastern states pay more). 

Does New York lead the nation in population loss? There are a few different ways to measure it, so the answer depends on the method used.

We were unable to reach Molinaro’s office for comment.

Losses to other states. This metric offers the strongest support for Molinaro’s statement.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, New York saw 137,000 residents move to other states during the year ending July 2025. That’s the second highest raw loss of any state. California ranked first, losing 229,077 residents to domestic migration (movement within the U.S.).

And on a percentage basis, New York had the highest percentage loss to domestic migration, at 0.69%. Hawaii, Alaska and California ranked second, third and fourth.

Overall population change. New York didn’t fare well in this category either, but it wasn’t the worst in the nation. 

New York gained 1,008 people on net between 2024 and 2025. This increase stemmed from the combination of natural growth (births minus deaths) plus international immigration exceeding New York’s losses to other states.

New York’s gain was the smallest percentage addition of any U.S. state that gained population — but fared better than the five states that didn’t gain population at all during that period. California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont, and West Virginia all lost population from 2024 to 2025.

New York’s decline is not a new development. New York’s population is down by 119,835 people since 2020, the second-highest raw number behind California. Other states to see losses during that period were Illinois, Louisiana, West Virginia, Hawaii and Mississippi.

On a percentage basis, New York’s loss was the fifth-largest in the nation. New York lost almost 0.6% of its population from 2020 to 2025, behind West Virginia, Hawaii, Louisiana and Illinois.

Our ruling 

Molinaro said New York leads the nation in population loss.

Population loss can be measured in two major ways. By one metric — migration to other states — New York has the second-highest raw population loss and the largest percentage of any state.

However, thanks to increases from births and international migration, New York gained a small number of people. Five other states had no gains.

The statement is partially accurate but ignores important information, so we rate it Half True.