No, turkey prices aren’t at their lowest in 25 years

A Republican North Carolina congressman says his party is responsible for sending turkey prices lower than they’ve been in 25 years. 

"This Thanksgiving, turkey prices are at their lowest point since 2000, thanks to Republican policies," said U.S. Rep. Richard Hudson, R-NC, in a Nov. 24 newsletter.

"I know grocery prices are a concern for so many (of) you," he wrote, "which is why I’m working to keep prices moving in the right direction after the inflationary spike over the last four years."

The newsletter linked to a Nov. 19 report by the American Farm Bureau Federation that doesn’t support his claim. 

Turkey price data collected by federal agencies — such as the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — is limited. We struggled to find inflation-adjusted data showing the price of a conventional frozen turkey each November dating back to 2000. However, we found no credible reports showing retail turkey prices hitting a 25-year low in 2025.

Cost as a percentage of the meal

The farm bureau’s report, which was based on its annual survey of volunteer shoppers, focused on the cost of a 16-pound turkey as a percentage of the total price of a Thanksgiving meal serving 10 people. The meal it priced also consisted of cranberries, sweet potatoes, stuffing and more.

A 16-pound turkey costs less this year but didn’t hit a 25-year low for the bureau’s survey, bureau spokesperson Bailey Corwine said. The national average price for a turkey of that size was lower in 2019 and 2020, when prices hit $20.80 and $19.39, respectively.

Historically, turkey has accounted for about 40% to 45% of the meal’s total cost, the group’s analysis found. This year, the bureau reported that a turkey of that size costs an average of $21.50, or 39% of the total meal cost. That’s the lowest percentage since 2000, when a turkey accounted for 38.7% of the meal. But the bureau found that’s partly because the prices of other items have risen. 

Produce prices are up because farmers are facing higher costs for fertilizer, fuel, machinery and labor, the bureau found. The price of sweet potatoes is up 37% from 2024 because Hurricane Helene damaged North Carolina fields, which produce more than half of the nation’s sweet potatoes. 

Asked about turkey costs, a USDA spokesperson referred us to the department’s weekly report on retail turkey prices. The Nov. 21 report shows mixed results, with fresh turkey prices down and other turkey prices up since last year. 

Prices for the most common kind of turkeys in the USDA survey — frozen conventional whole turkeys — were up nationally over last year. The price of a frozen conventional whole turkey weighing less than 16 pounds averaged 96 cents per pound during the week ending Nov. 21, up a penny from a year earlier. Frozen conventional whole turkeys weighing more than 16 pounds cost an average of 99 cents per pound, up from 96 cents a year ago. Other years show lower prices. In November 2008 and 2009, one pound of turkey cost less than 90 cents, a 2010 USDA report showed. 

Retail versus wholesale turkey prices

Here’s another wrinkle.

Turkey prices are tracked in a number of ways and this year Americans may come across seemingly contradictory headlines: Wholesale prices are up, but retail prices are down in many places.

A rise in bird flu cases is diminishing the nation’s turkey stock, raising turkey wholesale prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Weekly National Turkey Report from Nov. 14 lists the cost of a whole frozen turkey as $1.77 per pound for an 8- to 16-pound bird — up from 97 cents per pound during the same week last year, as PolitiFact reported. Some researchers and economists expect retailers to pass that increase along to customers. 

However, many consumers are paying lower prices for turkey than they were last year. One reason: Retailers typically secure their turkey supply months in advance of Thanksgiving, meaning they may have avoided the recent jump in wholesale prices, a USDA spokesperson told PolitiFact in an email. Shoppers can also find lower prices on turkey because retailers offer deals on Thanksgiving bundles, as PolitiFact recently reported.

Grocers are sometimes willing to sell turkeys at a discount if they think they can make up for revenue losses through sales on other products. Shoppers may see turkey prices that are about 16% lower than they were last year, the bureau reported.

Datasembly, a market research company that surveys weekly prices at 150,000 U.S. stores, found a 2% decline in the retail price of a 10-pound turkey as of Nov. 17, the Associated Press reported. The Nov. 21 USDA report on retail activity found mixed results, with frozen turkeys priced slightly higher than last year and fresh turkeys priced slightly lower. 

Asked about the claim, a spokesperson for Hudson sent PolitiFact a list of media articles about turkey costs declining this year compared to last year, as well as a White House press release. However, Hudson’s email response didn’t include proof that turkey prices are at a 25-year-low. 

Our ruling

Hudson said "turkey prices are at their lowest point since 2000," and cited a report by the American Farm Bureau Federation. The report doesn’t back up his claim. It says the price of a turkey accounts for about 39% of a typical Thanksgiving meal, which is the lowest percentage in 25 years partly because the other items are more expensive.

The bureau found the price of a turkey to be lower in other years, such as 2019 and 2020. And the USDA’s most recent report on retail turkey prices found frozen birds to cost slightly more this year than last year.  We rate Hudson’s claim False.