White House exaggerates added take-home pay estimate for families under ‘Big Beautiful Bill'

As President Donald Trump’s July 4 deadline for passing his "Big Beautiful Bill" approaches, the White House has been touting its potential economic impact on Americans.

The bill, a tax and spending measure that the Senate can approve with a simple majority, contains many of Trump’s policy priorities, including an extension of his 2017 tax cuts and policy changes to federally funded programs, such as Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

In a June 24 fact sheet, the White House wrote that if the bill passes, "hardworking Americans and families will see an average increase in take-home pay of OVER $10,000 per year." 

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt offered an even larger number during a June 19 briefing, saying the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers "found that the One Big Beautiful Bill will raise take-home pay by nearly $14,000 for a year for the average family of four." During a June 26 briefing, she used the $10,000 figure.

And an ad sponsored by the pro-Trump group Securing American Greatness said the bill would give "working families $10,000 more every year." 

But the White House, Leavitt and the ad touted the high end of the Council of Economic Advisers’ projection, which was not a single figure but a range. 

And the Council of Economic Advisers’ analysis is based on significantly more aggressive projections about how much the bill will boost the economy than independent groups have used.

What does the Council of Economic Advisers report say?

When contacted for comment, the White House pointed us to a June 25 report from its in-house Council of Economic Advisers. The report projected how much the economy would gain from elements of Trump’s bill, which includes business tax cuts and temporary tax relief Trump had promised for overtime work and tipped work.

The council projected that during the first four years after the bill’s passage, take-home pay for a family of four would rise by a minimum of $7,600 to a maximum of $10,900 annually. In the 10th year after the bill’s passage, it would rise by $5,503 to $9,070. (The figures would decrease by about $1,000 on each end if a proposed tax cut for overtime is removed from the projection; many workers aren’t paid overtime.)

The White House’s $10,000 figure is at the highest end of the council’s calculations. But the council’s numbers depend on some particularly optimistic projections.

The council projected that in the first four years after the bill’s passage, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product — a common way to measure the overall U.S. economic output — would be 4.6% to 4.9% higher than without the bill’s passage. By the 10th year after passage, the council projected 2.9% to 3.5% higher GDP.

Those estimates go beyond what independent analyses have projected if the bill passes.

The center-right Tax Foundation has projected a 1.1% percent "long run" expansion in gross domestic product.

The Penn-Wharton Budget Model at the University of Pennsylvania projects a 0.4% increase in GDP over 10 years.

And the Congressional Budget Office, Congress’ nonpartisan number-crunching arm, projected a 0.5% increase over 10 years.

After the Council of Economic Advisers’ released its report, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a fiscally hawkish think tank, wrote that the report’s claims "are based on fantasy growth assumptions (that) are many times higher than other estimators."

Garrett Watson, Tax Foundation director of policy analysis, said the discrepancy in economic growth assumptions "suggest that we should be questioning their estimates for growth from the package, as they are dramatically higher than any other independent estimate out there so far." 

Featured Fact-check

Elizabeth Warren

stated on June 24, 2025 in an X post

“If every one of the 340 million people in America paid a new $35 copay to visit the doctor, that still wouldn’t be enough to cover how much Meta would get from just one tax break in Donald Trump's ‘Big Beautiful Bill.’"

What would the household income impact be?

How much the bill is assumed to boost GDP growth has a major impact on how much those analyses say households can expect to gain from the bill’s passage. 

Without taking into account the bill’s impact on economic growth, the Tax Foundation projected that a household with $60,000 in after-tax income would see a one-year income bump of about $1,620 in 2025 and $3,060 in 2026.

After the bill’s effect on economic growth is factored in, the Tax Foundation projected that after-tax income would increase by about $1,980 in inflation-adjusted dollars in 2025.

And the Penn-Wharton Budget Model found that a household in the middle one-fifth of the income distribution — starting at around $51,000 — would see an $840 income boost in 2026.

Our ruling

The White House said if the "Big Beautiful Bill" passes, "hardworking Americans and families will see an average increase in take-home pay of OVER $10,000 per year."

The Council of Economic Advisers, an arm of the White House, projected that during the first four years after the bill’s passage, take-home pay for a family of four would rise by a minimum of $7,600 to a maximum of $10,900 annually, or by slightly smaller amounts if a proposed tax cut for overtime is removed from the calculation. In the 10th year after the bill’s passage, it projected incomes would rise by $5,503 to $9,070.

But the White House plucked the highest end of the Council of Economic Advisers’ projection, which was not a single figure but a range. 

Also, the Council of Economic Advisers’ analysis is based on much higher projections about how much the bill would boost gross domestic product than independent analyses found. 

The statement contains an element of truth, because the highest estimates show an increase of up to $10,900 in take-home pay if the bill passes. But those estimates were cherry picked and are far higher than those by independent groups.

We rate the statement Mostly False.