If the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ fails, taxes could increase about 7.5%, not 68% as Donald Trump said

President Donald Trump is sounding an alarm: If Congress doesn't pass his tax and spending bill, taxpayers will pay, big time.

Referring to his wide-ranging tax and spending legislation called the "Big, Beautiful Bill," Trump said in a June 5 Truth Social post, "If this bill doesn’t pass, there will be a 68% tax increase."

Trump cited the same figure in May 25 comments to reporters and during a May 30 press conference. 

However, independent analyses of the bill — which would extend the 2017 tax cuts that are slated to expire later this year — found that Trump’s estimate is about 10 times bigger than the expected increase would be if the cuts expire.

The White House did not respond to an inquiry for this article. 

How much would taxes be expected to increase?

Republicans have largely advocated for extending the full 2017 law. Democrats — including the party’s 2024 presidential nominee, then-Vice President Kamala Harris — have generally supported extending the lower tax rates only for families earning up to $400,000 a year.

If the 2017 tax bill sunsets, taxes would rise for most taxpayers. But the Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan think tank, has estimated, on average, Americans’ taxes would rise by about 7.5% if the 2017 tax cuts fully expired — not 68%. 

The Tax Policy Center didn’t find any single income group, whether lower-income or higher-income, that would see a 68% tax hit if the law expired. 

Taxpayers earning up to $34,600 could expect a nearly 12% increase, and taxpayers earning $67,000 and up could expect a 7% to 8% increase.

The center-right Tax Foundation hasn’t calculated an estimate, but the group made broadly similar projections as the Tax Policy Center, said Garrett Watson, the Tax Foundation’s director of policy analysis. Watson said the 68% figure is much higher than estimates he has seen from credible experts.

It’s possible that Trump’s 68% figure is a garbled reference to a separate statistic, tax experts said. 

The Tax Policy Center estimated that just over 64% of taxpayers would see taxes increase if the law expires. That percentage varies based on the household income. Many low-income households would see no change, often because they don’t earn enough to pay federal income taxes. But for households making $67,000 or higher, there’s a roughly 80% likelihood of a tax increase.

Similarly, the Tax Foundation said 62% of taxpayers would pay higher taxes if the 2017 law lapsed.

Featured Fact-check

American Action Network

stated on June 4, 2025 in an ad

The Republican tax and spending bill will provide a “tax cut for Social Security recipients.”

None of this, however, means that the increase for the typical taxpayer would be more than 60% compared with what they paid in taxes the previous year.

The Republican tax bill generally reduces taxes for lower- and middle-income groups while benefiting wealthier taxpayers the most, the Tax Policy Center found.

Those earning $34,600 or less would see their after-tax incomes rise by 0.6% if the Republican bill passes, while those earning $67,000 or more would see a 2.8% increase. The boost would be even stronger for the top 5% of earners, the top 1% of earners, and the top one-tenth of 1% of earners.

A Tax Foundation February analysis found higher gains among all income groups, especially when factoring in expected economic growth from the lower taxes. But the same pattern held — the biggest percentage gains from passing the Republican bill went to the top 5% and 1% of earners.

Our ruling

Trump said if the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill doesn’t pass, "there will be a 68% tax increase."

If the 2017 tax law is not extended, independent analyses show that taxes will increase, but by far less than what Trump said. 

The Tax Policy Center projects that the increase would be about 7.5% overall. The Tax Foundation broadly agreed with that assessment.

We rate the statement False.