Eric Hovde’s claim that Tammy Baldwin won “nearly 90%” of Milwaukee absentee votes is off

Losing Wisconsin Republican U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde has, so far, refused to concede his loss to incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin. 

A week after Election Day, Hovde posted a five-minute video to his X account with his thoughts on the race.

"I believe it’s better not to comment until I have the facts," he said in the video’s first few seconds. "Like many of my supporters, I was shocked by what unfolded on election night." 

Hovde also said that at 4 a.m. Milwaukee updated its count to include roughly 108,000 absentee ballots and that Baldwin won "nearly 90% of those ballots."

"Statistically, this outcome seems improbable," Hovde said, "as it didn’t match the pattern from same-day voting in Milwaukee, where I received 22% of the vote."  

Let’s see if Hovde is correct. 

Milwaukee received 108,964 absentee ballots by Nov. 5, according to the unofficial count. 

Of that group, Baldwin received 88,229 and Hovde received 17,699 absentee ballots. 

So, Baldwin got 80.9% of the absentee vote and Hovde got 16.2% of it. 

Clearly, Baldwin did not get "nearly 90%" of the absentee ballot vote.

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In comparison, Baldwin slightly outperformed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris who received 87,852 absentee votes, or 80.6%. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump outperformed Hovde by receiving 18,698 or 17.1%. 

That pattern occurred throughout the state as Baldwin outperformed Harris and Hovde was not carried by Trump who ended up winning the state. 

Hovde is claiming the absentee ballot pattern doesn’t match what he got on Election Day. So, let’s review what happened in Milwaukee on Election Day. 

On Election Day itself, there were 140,043 votes cast in Milwaukee, according to the unofficial count. Of that number, Baldwin received 102,598 and Hovde received 29,574.

So, Baldwin pulled down 73.2% of the vote on Election Day compared to Hovde’s 21.1% of that vote. That’s not quite 22%, as he said, but it’s closer than what he said Baldwin’s absentee vote was.

Often, the same-day vote comes in at a different split than absentee votes because, traditionally, more Republicans vote on Election Day than earlier. And Republicans this year pushed for more of their supporters to vote absentee. 

And the vote being counted early Wednesday morning shouldn’t have surprised Hovde, either. 

Under Wisconsin law, absentee ballots cannot be processed before 7 a.m. on Election Day. The Republican-controlled state Senate earlier this year let a bipartisan bill die that would have enabled clerks to start processing absentee ballots the day before the election and therefore finish counting all the ballots at a more reasonable time on Election Day. And thus avoiding updating the results at 4 a.m.

In suggesting there may be irregularities with the vote count, Hovde claimed Baldwin got "nearly 90%" of the absentee ballot vote in the city of Milwaukee. 

According to the city’s results on its website, Baldwin got 80.9% of the vote, which is not "nearly 90%." 

Our definition of False is "the statement is not accurate." That fits here.