US-Mexico border crossings are down, as Joe Biden says, but single cause is hard to pinpoint

President Joe Biden issued a new directive June 4 to limit the number of migrants seeking asylum at the southern U.S. border. 

Biden’s proclamation comes weeks before he and former President Donald Trump face off in their first 2024 presidential debate and as they battle over their records on immigration policies. 

The Biden administration’s directive suspends and limits the entry of certain noncitizens into the U.S. across the southern border when the Homeland Security secretary determines that there has been an average of 2,500 encounters or more at the border over seven consecutive days. To halt the suspension, the numbers would have to drop to fewer than 1,500 encounters on average seven days in a row. 

Encounters data represents events, not people. For example, if one person tries to cross the border three times and is stopped each time, that would be counted as three encounters. This data also doesn’t tell us how many people stayed in the U.S.

The order takes effect immediately because current daily encounters exceed 2,500, according to the administration.

In a speech June 4 at the White House, Biden said the numbers of encounters are dropping already.

"The facts are clear, due to the arrangements that I've reached with (Mexican) President (Andrés Manuel López) Obrador, the number of migrants coming … to our shared border unlawfully in recent months has dropped dramatically," Biden said. "While these steps are important, they're not enough to truly secure the border."

We found that the encounter numbers have dropped in recent months amid increased interceptions by Mexico. But immigration experts told PolitiFact it's difficult to pinpoint one reason for any change in migration numbers. 

The White House pointed to the latest publicly available data from the U.S. Border Patrol showing immigration officials encountered people illegally crossing the border about 128,900 times in April compared with about 250,000 in December. That’s a 48.4% decrease. The numbers of encounters at ports of entry have also dropped

During a May 13 news conference, López Obrador said the number of migrants reaching the southern U.S. border had dropped by about 50%.

David Bier, immigration studies director at the libertarian Cato institute, said Biden is correct to attribute border encounter declines to actions by Mexico, but offered a caveat.

"Mexico is making unprecedented arrests," Bier said. "I believe that it is unsustainable because, although Mexico is arresting them and sending them to southern Mexico, they are not deporting them to their home countries. This means that it is very likely they will ultimately find their way to the United States because they are still in Mexico, and there's not much for them to do there except keep trying to get to the U.S."

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U.S. officials said Mexico’s willingness to stop migrants from entering the U.S. is largely because of increased dialogue between the two countries.

Biden and López Obrador have spoken multiple times since late 2023 and have released joint statements over the last several months about joint efforts to curb immigration, fentanyl and firearms trafficking.

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Secretary of State Antony Blinken also went to Mexico in December to meet with their Mexican counterparts. 

"As we made clear in Mexico City today, we are committed to partnering with Mexico to address our shared challenges, including managing unprecedented irregular migration in the region, reopening key ports of entry, and combating illicit fentanyl and other synthetic drugs," Blinken wrote Dec. 27 on X.

A White House summary of a conversation in April between Biden and López Obrador said the two politicians ordered their national security teams to apply measures that would  "significantly reduce irregular border crossings" and to address the root causes of the migration.

U.S. immigration experts said it’s difficult to isolate single causes for any change in the number of arrivals at the border, but agreed that Mexico vastly increased its enforcement efforts after discussions between the two nations.

However, "there is no reason to think that this drop will be long-lasting, especially considering the number of migrants who are likely stranded in Mexico right now," said Adam Isacson, defense oversight director at Washington Office on Latin America, a group advocating for human rights in the Americas. 

"No crackdown in the last 10 years has had a lasting impact, not even Title 42," he said. Title 42 is a public health policy invoked during the COVID-19 pandemic to decrease the number of migrants entering the U.S.

Whether the declines continue is uncertain, because migrants and migrant smugglers "have proven highly adaptable to changes in policy, process, operations and even infrastructure," said Theresa Cardinal Brown, senior adviser for immigration and border policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank. "We have not seen sustained decreases in arrivals after policy changes in the past."

The data also doesn’t reflect the changing demographics and nationalities of people arriving, nor the factors sending them to the border. Continued fluctuation in numbers of arrivals is expected if there is no consistent immigration policy to address the ongoing migration crisis, Brown said.

Steven Camarota, research director at the Center for Immigration Studies, a think tank that  supports low levels of immigration, said it’s hard to say how much Mexico’s actions have contributed to the decline, but that the numbers are still high. "It is possible their actions matter, but even if they do, we have no idea if Mexico will continue to take action nor do we know if the smugglers and migrants will simply adapt and the modest decline will disappear."

Biden said, "Due to the arrangements that I've reached with President Obrador, the number of migrants coming … to our shared border unlawfully in recent months has dropped dramatically."

U.S. Border Patrol data shows immigrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border have dropped in recent months. Immigration experts said it’s difficult to pinpoint a single reason for any change in border crossings, but acknowledged that the decrease comes amid more cooperation between the two countries.

Biden’s statement is accurate but needs clarification or additional information. We rate it Mostly True.

RELATED: The context behind Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s dueling immigration speeches at the Texas border

PolitiFact Staff Writers Maria Ramirez Uribe and Maria Briceño contributed to this report.