As a presidential candidate, Donald Trump promised to secure 4% growth for the national economy. But he hasn't succeeded, even before the coronavirus pandemic sent the economy into a recession.
Here's a chart of year-over-year growth in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product. It shows that the economy didn't hit an annual 4% increase in any of Trump's three completed years in office. The periods under Trump are shown in red, while the periods in blue were under his predecessor, Barack Obama.
The best performance on Trump's watch came in 2018, when the economy grew by 2.9% over the level in 2017.
In addition, the economy didn't even hit the 4% mark in any single quarter under Trump. This chart shows the annualized quarterly growth in U.S. GDP.
This chart shows that growth in any quarter maxed out at 3.5%, on two occasions.
"Until February 2020, a fair-minded observer would have given the Trump administration a decent grade for U.S. economic performance in its first 36 months in office," said Brookings Institution economist Gary Burtless. "However, a fair-minded observer would have given the administration a failing grade for living up to its promise to deliver 4%-per-year economic growth."
Meanwhile, the onset of the pandemic-driven recession "means the president will not achieve his goal of 4% growth" by the end of his first four years, Burtless said.
"Even if there is a quick turnaround in the second half of the year, something that is now viewed by many economic forecasters as unlikely, few economists would give the administration much credit for a quarter or two of 4%-per-year growth if GDP remains substantially below its level in the 4th quarter of 2019," Burtless said.
We'll also mention our usual disclaimer: Presidents are not all-powerful on the economy, so they don't deserve too much credit or blame for the economic performance on their watch.
We rate this a Promise Broken.