Make no cuts to Social Security
Donald Trump
“I’m not going to cut Social Security like every other Republican and I’m not going to cut Medicare or Medicaid.”
Trump-O-Meter
Promise Kept
As a candidate, Donald Trump promised to make no cuts to Social Security. As president, he has periodically proposed policies that would cut aspects of the program, but so far, none of them have been enacted.
Trump released a proposed budget for 2021, as he had in previous years, that advocated cutting two disability programs administered by the Social Security Administration: Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income. Collectively, the two programs serve millions of Americans.
SSDI and SSI are separate from and smaller than the agency's main retirement income program. SSDI benefits people with physical and mental conditions that are severe enough to permanently keep them from working. It is funded by Social Security payroll taxes. Meanwhile, SSI payments are limited to low-income Americans — senior citizens, or adults or children who are disabled or blind. The payments are funded through general revenue from the Treasury.
Trump's actions very well should have earned him a Promise Broken. He tried multiple times to break his own promise. But our promise meters (often to the dismay of our readers) are about outcomes. We've gotten complaints over the years about promises that couldn't happen because they were blocked by Congress, but we repeatedly rated them on the outcome.
In this case, a Promise Broken rating would suggest that seniors had their Social Security benefits cut. But that isn't the case.
That's because Congress stopped Trump from breaking his own promise. All of this is unusual, but it still means that Social Security benefits haven't been cut. That's a Promise Kept.
This post was updated on July 24, 2020, to make clearer our process rating promises based on outcomes.
National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, "The President's FY 2021 Budget," Feb. 12, 2020
Email interview with Richard Johnson, senior fellow at the Urban Institute, July 9, 2020
In his 2019 budget proposal, President Donald Trump revived a proposal from his previous budget that would cut disability programs administered by the Social Security Administration.
Under the heading "reform disability programs," the budget blueprint counts $72 billion in spending reductions over 10 years. These would be from two similarly named but distinct programs run by the Social Security Administration -- Social Security Disability Insurance (or SSDI) and Supplemental Security Income (or SSI).
SSDI benefits people with physical and mental conditions that are severe enough to permanently keep them from working. It is funded by Social Security payroll taxes. Meanwhile, SSI payments are limited to low-income Americans -- senior citizens, or adults or children who are disabled or blind. The payments are funded through general revenue from the treasury.
"The largest cut would come from an unspecified proposal to test new approaches to increase labor force participation of people with disabilities," said Benjamin W. Veghte, the vice president for policy at the National Academy of Social Insurance.
As we noted last year when we looked at this promise, White House budget director Mick Mulvaney has argued that putting forth this proposal doesn't mean that Trump would be breaking his promise, because the budget proposal doesn't cut from the Social Security retirement program.
But even beyond the fact that SSDI and SSI are administered by the Social Security Administration, they also serve a large population.
Through December 2017, there were 10.4 million SSDI recipients and 8.2 million SSI recipients. That's smaller than the 51.5 million Americans who receive old-age and survivor benefits, but it's a significant group.
It's important to note that the president's budget is a non-binding proposal, and this policy idea may well fall by the wayside this year, as it did last year.
Even so, the budget document reflects Trump's priorities and policy positions. Since he's reviving last year's proposal, we will continue to rate the promise Stalled.
President's budget proposal, fiscal year 2019
President's budget proposal, fiscal year 2018
Social Security Administration, Monthly Statistical Snapshot, December 2017
Social Security Administration, Number Of Social Security Beneficiaries, accessed Feb. 14, 2018
AARP, "What's the Difference Between SSDI and SSI?" accessed Feb. 14, 2018
Email interview with Benjamin W. Veghte, vice president for policy at the National Academy of Social Insurance, Feb. 14, 2018
On the campaign trail, President Donald Trump said he was going to break the typical Republican mold by not pushing cuts to Social Security.
But his first annual White House budget does call for some cuts, to the tune of about $72 billion over 10 years.
White House budget director Mick Mulvaney told reporters that this doesn't mean Trump broke his promise. His reasoning: The budget doesn't cut from the Social Security retirement program.
The cuts are all concentrated in the Social Security disability insurance program, which the White House wants to reform in order to reduce fraud and close loopholes.
In 2016, about 10.6 million Americans received disability benefits through Social Security, and about 50.2 million people received Social Security retirement and survivor benefits, according to the Social Security Administration.
Mulvaney said he believes most Americans associate Social Security with retirement, not disability benefits.
"If you ask, 999 people out of 1,000 would tell you that Social Security disability is not part of Social Security," Mulvaney said. "It's old-age retirement that they think of when they think of Social Security."
This may very well be the case, but it does not change the fact that disability benefits are structurally part of Social Security.
The White House budget is just a proposal. Congress has to decide whether to take these suggestions and turn them into law.
Even so, the budget reflects Trump's priorities and policy positions. Because the budget deviates from his pledge not to cut Social Security, we rate the promise Stalled.
White House Office of Management and Budget, "A New Foundation For American Greatness Fiscal Year 2018," May 23, 2017
White House, "Off-camera Briefing of the FY18 Budget by Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney," May 22, 2017
White House, "Press Briefing on the FY2018 Budget," May 23, 2017