Detroit absentee ballot return rate doesn’t signal election fraud

Detroit was a 2020 target of election misinformation, and now that early voting is underway around the country, social media users have been closely monitoring the city’s voting activity.

Some users have baselessly claimed that — three weeks before Election Day — there’s already evidence of fraud.

"Detroit is the worst-run city in the US but already hit (an absentee) ballot return rate of 40%," the conservative X account End Wokeness wrote in an Oct. 14 X post. The conservative account Hodgetwins reposted that Oct. 15 with the caption, "They are stealing Michigan already."

(Screenshot from X)

As of Oct. 15, Detroit had issued 100,470 ballots and received 41,235 — a 41% return rate. That’s compared with the last general election, when by Oct. 12, 2020, Detroit had issued 132,879 ballots and received 34,735, a 26% return rate.

The Michigan Department of State issued figures per jurisdiction for absentee ballot requests, ballots issued and ballots received. PolitiFact calculated the return rates by dividing the number of ballots received by the number of ballots issued.

Experts told PolitiFact this higher return rate is not evidence of election fraud. They said the return rate is not surprising and is likely caused by multiple factors, including expanded access to absentee voting, greater awareness and enthusiasm among voters to cast ballots for or against candidates or measures.

Matt Friedman, spokesperson for the nonpartisan voter information campaign program Detroit Votes, who is authorized to speak on behalf of the Detroit City Clerk’s Office, said the city has been reminding voters to submit their ballots early. One city newsletter said, "It’s critical for Detroit voters who received absentee ballots to return them as soon as possible. The Department of Elections anticipates a high volume of absentee ballots to be processed for the Presidential Election."

He also pointed to an increase in the number of drop boxes in Detroit. There are now 35 locations, compared with 30 in 2020. 

Friedman also said technology for accepting absentee ballots has been upgraded through a system called Relia-Vote, which allows for faster processing of absentee ballots. 

"The system is working as intended," Friedman said.

The Michigan Department of State said that statewide, as of Oct. 15, more than 2.1 million registered voters requested an absentee ballot. More than 672,000 ballots have been received, for a 32% return rate. PolitiFact calculated this return rate by dividing the number of ballots received by the number of ballots requested.

Using the same metrics, the return rate was higher at the same time in 2020, when 34% of absentee voters had returned their absentee ballots.

Paul Manson, research director at the Election & Voting Information Center, a nonpartisan academic research center, said that in 2020, Michigan issued absentee ballot applications to all registered voters as part of its COVID-19 response. "This year if the voter was not on the permanent absentee list they would need to take more steps" to receive an absentee ballot, he said. "So this likely skews the denominator" between 2020 and 2024.

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Barbara Smith Warner, executive director of the National Vote At Home Institute, an organization advocating for increased access to and confidence in vote-by-mail systems, said voters are now "much more familiar with mail ballots and voting at home."

Michigan implemented "no-reason" absentee voting in 2018; this is the second general election for which Michigan voters can request absentee ballots without providing a reason. Before 2018, Michigan voters could request absentee ballots only if they met one of six criteria, such as being at least 60 years old or being in jail awaiting trial.

Michigan voters passed Proposal 2 in 2022, which expanded early voting and absentee voting rights. Voters can now apply for the permanent absent voter list and receive absentee ballots for every future election. 

The University of Florida Election Lab early vote dashboard shows that 25 Michigan counties reported absentee ballot return rates higher than 40% as of Oct. 16. Wayne County, where Detroit is, reported a 39% return rate.

Return rates higher than 2020 might reflect Michigan’s voting changes, Paul Gronke, director of the Elections and Voting Information Center, said.

"But it is not evidence at all of an election being ‘stolen,’" Gronke said. "In (fact), those ‘early’ reports of absentee ballot returns would be a foolish way to try to steal an election since the whole process is transparent to outside observers."

Gronke said ballot return rates may also signal enthusiasm to vote for or against candidates, contests or ballot measures.

Tammy Patrick, chief program officer of the National Association of Election Officials, also known as the Election Center, said that in 2020, a shift in voting behavior showed voters took early action, "with more early requests and returns than had been the historical trend."

"It does not surprise me, nor cause me any concern, that voters are taking early action again in 2024," Patrick said.

An X post said Detroit’s 2024 absentee ballot return rate is evidence of election fraud.

Detroit has reported a 41% absentee ballot return rate as of Oct. 15, compared with 26% at the same time in 2020.

Experts say this is not proof of fraud.

Detroit made multiple efforts to improve the absentee voting systems, including increasing the number of drop box locations, reminding absentee voters to submit their ballots early and upgrading technology for processing absentee ballots.

New Michigan election laws have made absentee voting more accessible since 2022. Voters can apply to be added to the permanent absent voter list to receive absentee ballots for every future election. 

We rate this claim False.