Claim about breast cancer deaths wildly misstates American Cancer Society data

In January, the American Cancer Society published its annual report of cancer facts and figures. Misinformation followed. 

In recent weeks, social media users have misconstrued data from the report to falsely claim dramatic increases in breast cancer cases in younger women. A new claim further distorts the data by saying it showed an exponential increase in breast cancer deaths since 2021 in women younger than 45.

"Yikes. We tried to warn people," read sticker text on a video shared June 22 on Instagram. The video begins with a woman asking, "Have you visited cancer.org lately and taken a look at their stats?"

She then recites statistics for what she said are breast cancer deaths in women 45 and younger. "2019, 20, 21, we’re looking at 26,000-ish deaths," she said. In 2022, she said, deaths jumped to 47,000, and then in 2023, to 297,000. "Don’t worry," she added, "It has nothing at all to do with the shot," a likely reference to COVID-19 vaccines, which were widely adopted in early 2021.

The Instagram post surfaced as part of Meta’s efforts to combat false news and misinformation on its News Feed. (Read more about our partnership with Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram.)

The video conflates two different figures from the American Cancer Society report — projected new cases and projected number of deaths. 

The first numbers cited in the video, 26,000 and 47,000, are the American Cancer Society’s projected annual cancer cases, not deaths, and the 47,000 are among a different age category, people 50 and younger. The 297,000 figure, meanwhile, is the number of projected new female breast cancer cases — not deaths — in all age groups, not just in 45 and younger.

The video also falsely implies a connection between COVID-19 vaccines and breast cancer. There’s no evidence of an increased risk of cancer after vaccination, health agencies and organizations, including the American Cancer Society, have said. 

Also, the projected — not actual — breast cancer cases and deaths in the American Cancer Society report are modeled on mortality data from before 2021. That means COVID-19 vaccines couldn’t be a factor in the projections. 

Here’s what American Cancer Society data shows about breast cancer cases and deaths in younger women: 

• In 2023, it projected 48,780 new invasive breast cancer cases and 3,780 deaths in females ages 50 and younger.

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• In 2022, it projected 47,550 new cases and 4,040 deaths in that same age group.

• In 2021, the stats projected 26,510 cases and 2,310 deaths in women 45 and younger. Those numbers were similar to projections in 2020 and 2019. 

It’s notable that the female breast cancer projections were categorized as 50 and younger in 2022 and 2023, but 45 and younger in prior years.

That change was made "to be more consistent with the convention for early onset cancers," that occur from ages 18 to 49, said Rebecca Siegel, the American Cancer Society’s senior scientific director of cancer surveillance research.

The age group expansion explains the increase in projected cases and deaths since 2021, said Michele Money-Carson, American Cancer Society national vice president of media relations. 

"More women mean more cancers,," said Money-Carson. "And since the risk of breast cancer increases with age, we can expect even more cases to show up."

Siegel noted that 45% of reported breast cancer cases in women younger than 50 from 2018 to 2020 were in the 45 to 49 age group.

The American Cancer Society report said that breast cancer incidence rates in women younger than 50 have increased about 0.5% per year since the mid-2000s. The increase probably relates to more people being overweight and reproductive trends, such as women having children at a later age, the report said. 

Deaths, however, have been declining, mostly because of earlier screening, increased breast cancer awareness and better treatment, the report said.

An Instagram video suggests COVID-19 vaccines are responsible for breast cancer deaths in women younger than 45 rising from 26,000 in 2021 to 297,000 in 2023.

But the statistics the video cites are not numbers of deaths. They are projected cases of cancer. And the 297,000 figure was projected cases (not deaths) from all age groups, not just 45 and younger.

There’s no evidence that COVID-19 vaccines increase people’s cancer risk. 

We rate the claim False.