Most of Florida's Lee County wasn't in the cone three days before hurricane, but parts of it were

Hurricane Ian battered Florida's southwestern coast Sept. 28, leaving streets flooded, buildings destroyed and people homeless. Lee County, which includes Cape Coral and Fort Myers, has some of the most extensive damage.

Media coverage of the area's mounting death toll prompted questions about whether Lee County officials gave residents ample notice to evacuate.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Lee County Commission Chairman Cecil Pendergrass rebuffed the questions on Oct. 2, saying the data available before landfall did not warrant such a response.

"Seventy-two hours before the storm, we still were not in the cone," Pendergrass said during a press conference. "We were working off of data and went off that data."

DeSantis also said Lee County based its decision on the National Hurricane Center's track forecast. "They were following the weather track and they had to make decisions based on that," he said in an interview with CNN. "But you know, 72 hours, they weren't even in the cone."

Federal officials echoed the comments from state officials. Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell made a claim about Lee County that was similar to DeSantis' during an Oct. 2 appearance on ABC's "This Week."

We reviewed eight advisories the National Hurricane Center issued Sept. 25 — three days before Ian made landfall. Most of Lee County was not within the forecasted path three days before landfall.

But one of the county's barrier islands, Cayo Costa — where the Category 4 hurricane made landfall — appeared inside the cone on each of eight advisories from Sept. 25. (No advisory was issued exactly 72 hours before Ian made landfall at 3:05 p.m.)

The cone graphic that DeSantis and Pendergrass referenced is often misunderstood, according to the National Hurricane Center. The visual is meant to show the probable track of the center of the storm — not the extent of a hurricane's reach.

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Focusing on the cone itself downplays the impacts of a storm as large as Ian. Still, in Ian's case, the cone was an accurate forecast of the storm's eventual trajectory, an expert said.

Matt Rogers, an atmospheric science researcher at Colorado State University, told PolitiFact that the cone graphic from Sept. 25 predicted that the center of Ian would cross the coastline anywhere between Cedar Key and Cayo Costa in Lee County. 

"The cone was therefore accurate," Rogers said. "The cone forecast from Sunday night predicted it was possible for the center of the hurricane to be as far south as Cayo Costa, and that's what happened."

The first of the Sept. 25 National Hurricane Center advisories, issued at 2 a.m., showed sparsely populated Cayo Costa inside the cone graphic on its eastern edge. 

 

DeSantis said that 72 hours before Hurricane Ian made landfall, Lee County wasn't "even in the cone."

Most of Lee County was not within Hurricane Ian's forecasted path 72 hours before landfall. But one of the county's barrier islands, Cayo Costa, appeared inside the forecast cone on each of eight advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center on Sept. 25, three days before the storm made landfall there. 

Experts stress that the cone does not indicate areas that will be affected by the storm; it indicates the expected center of the storm.

There is an element of truth in that most of Lee County was not in the forecasted center of the storm 72 hours of landfall; but one of the county's barrier islands was, and focusing on the cone itself downplays the impacts of a storm as large as Ian.

We rate his claim Mostly False.