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Donald Trump’s promise of 4 percent economic growth a year did not happen in 2017
President Donald Trump's promise to grow the economy by 4 percent a year did not come through in 2017, although the economy did see a 4.1 percent boost in the second quarter of 2018.
The gross domestic product, a broad measure of the national economy, grew 2.3 percent in 2017, better than the 1.5 percent growth in 2016 but lower than the 2.9 percent increase in 2015, according to data from the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The bureau's advance estimates showed a 4.1 percent real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018, compared to the 2.2 percent increase in 2018's first quarter. (A "second" estimate with more complete data for the second quarter is scheduled to be released Aug. 29.)
The 4.1 percent growth reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, business investments, and government spending, partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment and housing investment, the bureau reported. Imports — a subtraction in the calculation of GDP — increased in the second quarter.
Trump in July touted the second quarter's 4.1 percent growth and said that as "trade deals come in, one by one, we're going to go a lot higher than these numbers."
That remains to be seen; many independent economists project that the annual real GDP growth in 2018 will be lower than 4 percent. (Here are several reasons why economists are skeptical about Trump's promised GDP growth.)
PolitiFact will continue to monitor annual economic growth under Trump's watch. For now, we rate this promise as In the Works.
Our Sources
U.S. Commerce Department, Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2018 (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits: First Quarter 2018 (Revised Estimate), June 28, 2018
Bureau of Economic Analysis, CHAPTER 7: CHANGE IN PRIVATE INVENTORIES
Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2018 (Advance Estimate), and Comprehensive Update, July 27, 2018
Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP INCREASES IN SECOND QUARTER "Advance" estimate of GDP, July 27, 2018
PolitiFact, Why economists are skeptical that U.S. can grow by 3 percent, May 26, 2017
New York Times, Trump Claims Credit for an Economy He Calls the 'Envy of the Entire World', July 27, 2018
PolitiFact, Donald Trump off-base in describing GDP growth on his watch, July 2, 2018
The World Bank, Global Economic Prospects The Turning of the Tide?
The Conference Board, The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the U.S. Economy, July 11, 2018