Trump touts 350-ship promise at Naval Academy graduation

President Donald Trump highlighted his campaign promise to increase the number of Navy ships during his May 25 speech to the U.S. Naval Academy.

"We have now the lowest number of ships that we've had since World War I," Trump said. "And very soon you are going to get to 355 beautiful ships, 355. That's almost a couple of hundred more ships. So you will be around for a long time. We are not running out of equipment. We're not running out of ships. And that has been approved. And we are honored by it." (Here's our round-up of our fact-checks of Trump's speech.)

We have been tracking Trump's campaign promise to build a Navy of 350 surface ships and submarines. The Navy's goal for achieving a fleet of 355 ships, up from 308 previously, was announced in December 2016 shortly before Trump took office.

We rated Trump's promise In the Works in April 2017 based on his budget requests.

But getting to 355 ships will not be "very soon."

The Navy currently has 283 ships. The Navy has plans to expand its fleet, but it will likely take decades to get to 355.

The Navy's long-range ship acquisition plan submitted to Congress Feb. 12 stated that it planned "to reach a 355-ship fleet by the early FY2050s, potentially quicker with an aggressive investment of resources."

In April, a Navy official said the goal of a larger Navy could be achieved in the 2030s by executing on a more robust shipbuilding plan and extending the service of other ships.

Todd Harrison, a defense analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that building new ships and replacing aging ones is an incremental process.

"There is no 'very soon' about growing the size of the Navy," he said.

Trump's statement that the 355-fleet "has been approved" doesn't tell the full story. The 2018 National Defense Authorization Act stated that it "shall be the policy of the United States to have available, as soon as practicable, not fewer than 355 battle force ships."

This year, the Navy budget submission for the five-year defense plan includes a $58.5 billion procurement budget that would buy 54 ships in future years and invest in high-tech systems including unmanned, cyber and directed energy weapons, Navy Lt. Kara Yingling said.

However, Harrison said that Congress has to appropriate the funding annually.

"In any given year, there is a finite amount of money," he said. "The more of it you spend on ship building the less of it that is available for other priorities."

The Congressional Budget Office estimated in March that under the most aggressive scenario the earliest the 355-fleet could be completed is 2028.

"I would argue not what most people consider to be 'very soon,'" said Steve Ellis, vice president for Taxpayers for Common Sense.

The CBO projected that combining that shipbuilding program with service life extension programs for some existing ships would cost an average of $27.5 billion annually.

While the Navy has outlined a roadmap to get to 355-ship fleet, it will take decades to get there and depends on Congressional spending priorities beyond Trump's tenure as president. We will continue to monitor Trump's promise to reach the 350-ship goal.

We rate this promise In the Works.