Political uncertainty envelops Trump’s vow to revamp U.S. infrastructure

At his presidency's two-year mark, Donald Trump's promise to invest $550 billion in American infrastructure has yet to take shape.

Trump's proposal last February to inject $200 billion in hard federal dollars fell well short of the more than half-trillion figure he cited on the campaign trail. Yet even this more modest proposal has not gained traction.

Any attempt to push an infrastructure package during the second half of Trump's first term will need to clear a split Congress, after Democrats reclaimed the House in the midterm elections.

It's unclear whether a divided government moves Trump closer or further from delivering on his promise. Following the November election, both sides sent mixed messages about the prospect of reaching a deal.

The day after his party lost the House, Trump said he was willing to negotiate with Democrats on infrastructure, and said the two sides share much common ground. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., also sounded an optimistic tone.

"We've talked in a very positive way," Pelosi told reporters Dec. 20. "Almost every conversation I've had with him since he's been president has involved how we can work together on infrastructure."

On the other hand, infrastructure may be shaping up as something of a wedge issue, with either side tethering its fate to highly partisan issues.

For his part, Trump threatened to veto any deal that did not include funding for border security.

"The Democrats, who know Steel Slats (Wall) are necessary for Border Security, are putting politics over Country," he tweeted Dec. 20. "What they are just beginning to realize is that I will not sign any of their legislation, including infrastructure, unless it has perfect Border Security. U.S.A. WINS!"

Trump also warned Democrats he would assume a "warlike posture" if the new House majority launched fresh investigations into his campaign and administration, indicating that such scrutiny would be incompatible with bipartisanship efforts on legislation.  

The top Senate Democrat, Chuck Schumer of New York, told Trump there would be no deal on infrastructure without a substantial investment in efforts to combat climate change, which could prove a hard sell to Republicans.

Infrastructure experts we spoke to were also unsure about the odds of the two sides reaching an agreement.

"Sometime this year, President Trump must decide whether to pivot from his base-oriented political strategy toward issues where cooperation across party lines is essential. If he does, infrastructure will be at the top of the list," said William Galston, an expert on government at the Brookings Institution. "I have no way of predicting which path he will take."

Given the political uncertainty, we'll leave our Stalled rating undisturbed.