Inflation persists for a wide range of items in first year of second Trump term

After year-over-year inflation peaked at about 9% in 2022, Donald Trump won his second term partly on a promise to "get the prices down." After the first year of his second term, prices are up for the most part.

Year-over-year inflation is down from what Trump inherited from President Joe Biden in January 2025 — but only slightly, from 3.0% to 2.7%. Today's inflation rate is higher than it was for most of Trump's first term, and it's in the ballpark of where it was for most of Biden's final year. It also remains higher than the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.

Inflation that's roughly steady defied his critics' expectations, because they had expected Trump's high-tariff policy to send prices significantly higher.

Still, steady inflation undercuts Trump's promise of reducing prices.

During Trump's first year, the price of electricity has risen significantly — almost 7% higher than a year ago. Housing, medical care, and tuition and child care are up by close to 3% year over year. Overall groceries and clothing are up by almost 2% each. Durable goods, which includes items such as appliances and furniture, saw the smallest price increase of any major category, under 1%.

Gasoline prices have seen a notable decline: After spending the first 10 months of 2025 in a holding pattern around $3.10 a gallon, gasoline prices have fallen below $2.80 a gallon nationally since November.

Prices for some grocery staples — including eggs, bacon, dairy products and bread — have decreased to one degree or another. And both new and used car prices are down slightly, while airfares are down more significantly.

"Overall, inflation at the start of 2026 is roughly the same as the start of 2025 — no great progress has been made," said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, a center-right think tank.

Prices for other grocery staples rose during 2025, including ground beef, steak, chicken breasts, coffee, fruits and vegetables, and sugar and sweets.

During the first year of Trump's second term, prices for certain items have dropped, including gasoline and some types of groceries. But prices for many key items, such as groceries, electricity, housing and medical care are higher than they were when he took office. We rate this promise Stalled.